TATAKalikasan: Our Changing Climate - "Usapang Klima: Ang Krisis ng Dry Corridor sa Guatemala"

      

TATAKalikasan Ateneo de Manila University Review 2024

97.8 FM Radyo Katipunan, 11 to 12 a.m. Thursday,

Our Changing Climate

"Usapang Klima: Ang Krisis ng Dry Corridor 

sa Guatemala"

Dr Abe V Rotor

Co-Host with Fr JM Manzano SJ, and Prof Emoy Rodolfo AdMU

INTRODUCTION

     Guatemala, a Central American country south of Mexico, is home to volcanoes, rainforests and ancient Mayan sites. The capital, Guatemala City, features the stately National Palace of Culture and the National Museum of Archaeology and Ethnology. Antigua, west of the capital, contains preserved Spanish colonial buildings. Lake Atitlán, formed in a massive volcanic crater, is surrounded by coffee fields and villages. ― Google

     o The Dry Corridor is a region in Central America that includes Guatemala,

        Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. 

     o It's known for its arid climate, seasonal droughts, and extreme weather events.  

     o The Dry Corridor has a long dry season and unpredictable rainfall patterns. 

     o  Climate change has made droughts more frequent and severe. 
     o The region experiences intense rains after long periods of drought. 

     o The Dry Corridor's climate puts the livelihoods of millions of people at risk. 

     o The region's agriculture is vulnerable to climate change, which has led to food

          insecurity and economic impact.
     o Many people are forced to migrate.   

     o Children are especially vulnerable to hunger and malnutrition

Discoveries in the 21st century led scholars to posit a number of additional reasons for the destruction of Mayan civilization. One cause was probably the war-related disruption of river and land trade routes. Other contributors may have been deforestation and drought. During the Post-Classic Period (900–1519), cities such as Chichén Itzá, Uxmal, and Mayapán in the Yucatán Peninsula continued to flourish for several centuries after the great lowland cities had become depopulated. By the time the Spaniards conquered the area in the early 16th century, most of the Maya had become village-dwelling agriculturists who practiced the religious rites of their forebears.

              

   Review Articles and References

Part 1 - 2019 Summer hits extreme Heat Index.

Part 2 - Effects of Global Warming

Part 3 - Kiribati: Vanishing Paradise (A Case of Ecological Migration)

Part 4 - Understanding the El Nino Phenomenon, Cause and Effect

Part 5 - Global Warming is accelerating!

Part 6 - Take Heed of the Early Warning Signs of Nature

ANNEX 1 - Global Warming and Forest Fire

ANNEX 2 - Excerpt L.A. Death Toll Rises. Wildfires Could Be Costliest

                   in U.S. History

Part 1 - 2019 Summer hits extreme Heat Index. 

Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activity since the mid-20th century. 
The heat index in Guiuan, Eastern Samar on Sunday beat Iba, Zambales's record of 53 degrees Celsius on April 28, 2024. State weather bureau PAGASA said the highest heat index in the country was recorded in Guiuan, Eastern Samar on Sunday at 55ºC. This broke the record made in Iba, Zambales on April 28 at 53ºC.

Dr Abe V Rotor

Former Professor, UST, DLSU-D Lesson in Advanced Ecology UST and DLSU(D) Graduate Schools. How can an ordinary citizen help in cushioning global warming?

                        Sign of the Times: Smog, acid rain and ozone depletion rolled altogether. 
                                                        Photo by AVR Fairview, QC 2010

Acknowledgment: Time Magazine

Here are scientific evidences released by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
It is a fact that the Earth's climate has been changing throughout history. In the last 650,000 years there have been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat, with the abrupt end of the last ice age about 7,000 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era — and of human civilization.

The planet's average surface temperature has risen about 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit (0.9 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, with most of the warming occurring in the past 35 years with the five warmest years on record taking place since 2010. The warmest year on record was 2016. The IPCC report continues with these alarming developments:

• The oceans are getting warmer. 
• Ice sheets are shrinking, especially Greenland and Antarctic. The Arctic sea ice is declining. 
• Glaciers are retreating almost everywhere around the world — including in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa (Mount Kilimanjaro),.
• The snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is melting at an earlier rate. .
• Sea level is rising. Global sea level rose about 8 inches in the last century. The rate in the last two decades, however, is nearly double that of the last century and is accelerating slightly every year.
• Extreme events such as extreme temperature, intense rainfall, and other force majeure 
• The acidity of surface ocean waters has increased by about 30 percent since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution

This global scenario calls for an urgent collective action. It is a plea addressed to governments, organizations, individuals all over the world>  It is a plea beyond message of an Internationally famous broadcaster, natural historian and author, David Attenborough. To wit:

"When we look at the rising ocean temperatures, rising carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and so on, we know that they are climbing far more steeply than can be accounted for by the natural oscillation of the weather … What people (must) do is to change their behavior and their attitudes … for our upcoming generation we have to do something, and we have to demand for government support

"Right now we are facing a man-made disaster of global scale, our greatest threat in thousands of years: climate change. If we don’t take action, the collapse of our civilisations and the extinction of much of the natural world is on the horizon".

- David Attenborough, 2018.

Part 2 - Effects of Global Warming

These are some effects of climate change, particularly global warming, a man-induced phenomenon occurring in our postmodern times. The examples cited in this article, are either the direct or indirect effects, of our ever continuing "modernization" in practically all aspects of our lives - at home, on the farm, in our community, more so in urban and industrial centers. I invite teachers and students to undertake researches on this growing ecological problem gripping the whole world today. It is a big challenge to scholars to give priority to this topic in their undergraduate and graduate studies.  Likewise, it is a challenge to our leaders in government, as well as in the private sector, in the formulation and implementation of policies and programs to deal with this worsening problem.  This is a continuing compilation of observations at the Living with Nature Center.   

Dr Abe V Rotor

Living with Nature School on Blog

 Premature ripening and infestation of Guyabano fruits

  

Damaged honeycomb abandoned by the bees. 

Uneven maturity and sizes of mango fruits

 

Infestation - caterpillar of Papilio butterfly  on citrus 

Poor and slow development of chicken

Poor gemination of seedlings

Heating of pondwater and acid rain are detrimental to fish. 

 

Ducks abandon their eggs.

Flowering may be induced but fruit setting is poor 

Slow growth of new  buds and crown 

 

Proliferation of fungi such as shelf mushroom 

 

Fruits fall off before they are ready for harvesting

Stimulates formation of mutants and variants in plants and 

lower organisms, such as this colorful gabi moth caterpillar 

Intensifies deciduousness of trees like talisay. Prolonged 

leafless condition may lead to the demise of the tree.

 

Intensifies spread of diseases in plants such as ringspot virus of papaya.

 

Stunted and damaged growth of sweet potato 

 

Growth of wild plants such as palomaria, mulberry 

and tawa-tawa.~ 

Part 3 - Kiribati: Vanishing Paradise 

(A Case of Ecological Migration)

Rising sea level is forcing inhabitants to leave permanently their home islands, a classical example of modern day exodus - ecomigration.

Dr Abe V Rotor

Kiribati main island is formerly Atoll Christmas, named by Captain Cook when he arrived on Christmas Eve in 1777. The island, like most islands in the region, faces irreversible submergence and sea water intrusion as a result of rising sea level brought about by global warming. The island was used as nuclear testing ground by the United States in the fifties and sixties.

Aerial view of the Kiribati group of islands. Rising sea level is forcing inhabitants to leave permanently their home islands, a classical example of modern day exodus - ecomigration. Displaced inhabitants are being settled mainly in Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea.

The sea has practically swallowed up a whole atoll*, with narrow 

fringes the only remaining habitable portion, at least up to now.

*An atoll is a ring-shaped coral reef, island, or series of islets. An atoll surrounds a body of water called a lagoon. Sometimes, atolls and lagoons protect a central island. Channels between islets connect a lagoon to the open ocean or sea. Atolls develop with underwater volcanoes, called seamounts.

Kiribati Parliament House is threatened by receding shoreline

 (background) and rising lagoon (foreground).

Kiribati (pronounced /ˈkɪrɨbæs or KIRR-i-bas; Gilbertese: [ˈkiɾibas]), is composed of 32 atolls and one raised coral island, dispersed over 3.5 million square kilometres, (1,351,000 square miles) straddling the equator, and bordering the International Date Line at its easternmost point. Kiribati is the only country in the world located on both hemispheres and lying on both sides of the 180th meridian.

The groups of islands are:

* Banaba: an isolated island between Nauru and the Gilbert Islands
* Gilbert Islands: 16 atolls located some 930 miles (1,500 km) north of Fiji
* Phoenix Islands: 8 atolls and coral islands located some 1,100 miles (1,800 km) southeast of the Gilberts
* Line Islands: 8 atolls and one reef, located about 2,050 miles (3,300 km) east of the Gilberts.
Caroline Atoll channel between west side of Long Island and Nake Island.

Used for nuclear testing in the 1950s and 1960s, the island is now valued for its marine and wildlife resources. It is particularly important as a seabird nesting site—with an estimated 6 million birds using or breeding on the island, including several million Sooty Terns.

According to the South Pacific Regional Environment Program, two small uninhabited Kiribati islets, Tebua Tarawa and Abanuea, disappeared underwater in 1999. The islet of Tepuka Savilivili no longer has any coconut trees due to salination. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that sea levels will rise by about half a metre (20 in) by 2100 due to global warming and a further rise would be inevitable. It is thus likely that within a century the nation's arable land will become subject to increased soil salination and will be largely submerged.

Rising level level is also being felt in many countries, particularly island-countries like the Philippines. ~

Images of Kiribati from the Internet

Kiribati, officially the Republic of Kiribati, is an island country in the Micronesia subregion of Oceania in the central Pacific Ocean. Its permanent population is over 119,000 as of the 2020 census, with more than half living on Tarawa atoll. The state comprises 32 atolls and one remote raised coral island, Banaba. Wikipedia

Official name: Republic of Kiribati.

Capital city: Tarawa.

Population: 135,389.

Area: 811 sq km.

Major languages: I-Kiribati, English.

Time zone: UTC+12/+13/+14 (Gilbert Island Time/Phoenix Island

     Time/Line Islands Time)

• Economy- Until 1979, when Banaba’s deposit of phosphate rock was exhausted, Kiribati’s economy depended heavily on the export of phosphate mineral. Before the cessation of mining, a large reserve fund was accumulated; the interest now contributes to government revenue. Other revenue earners are copra, mostly produced in the village economy, and license fees from foreign fishing fleets, including a special tuna-fishing agreement with the European Union. Commercial seaweed farming has become an important economic activity. Internet
• 
  
•             Part 4: Understanding the El Nino Phenomenon, 
  Cause and Effect

  
  

  El Niño and La Niña events occur every two to seven years, on average, but they don't occur on a regular schedule. Generally, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña. A new study found global weather events caused by El Niño will likely become more frequent within the next two decades regardless of any reduction in carbon emissions, which could drastically affect weather patterns around the world.

              

         Extreme drought brings rice farming to a halt, Cabanatuan, Nueva Ecija, 2010

  
  

  The El Nino Phenomenon is quite hard to explain even in scientific circles.
  
  

  But first, let me clear El Nino, who to us Filipinos is most endeared in our hearts and homes, referring of course to the Child Jesus. The name was coined in Spanish when the descent of warm water along the coast of Peru and Argentina overcomes the ascending cold current causing massive rainfall and flooding. The phenomenon report coincided on Decmber 25.

  

  
  

  A timeline of all the El Nino episodes between 1900 and 2016. It is thought that there have been at least 30 El Niño events since 1900, with the 1982-83, 1997–98 and 2014–16 events among the strongest on record. Since 2000, El Niño events have been observed in 2002–03, 2004–05, 2006–07, 2009–10 and 2015–16.

  
  

  --------------------------------------------

  Major ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) events were recorded in the years 1790–93, 1828, 1876–78, 1891, 1925–26, 1972–73, 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2014–16 with the episodes being among of the strongest ever.  Since 2000, El Niño events have been observed in 2002–03, 2004–05, 2006–07, 2009–10, 2014–16, and 2018–19.
  

  -------------------------------------------

  
  

                             

                            Death of livestock, other animals and wildlife, engraving

  
  

  El Niño events are thought to have been occurring for thousands of years.The biblical story of the 10 Plagues of Egypt is believed to be associated with El Nino, and possibly coincided with other natural disasters such as the eruption of Mt Vesuvius. The death of livestock spawned hordes of flies that caused the outbreak of boils, and triggered sudden increase in frog population. This was favored by the abatement of the Nile River's flow, which in turn caused dinoflagellates to bloom (algal bloom) with the characteristic blood-red color which we term today as Red Tide.

  
  

  There is no consensus on whether climate change will have any influence on the occurrence, strength or duration of El Niño

  Typically, this anomaly happens at irregular intervals of two to seven years, and lasts nine months to two years. The average period length is five years. When this warming occurs for seven to nine months, it is classified as El Niño "conditions"; when its duration is longer, it is classified as an El Niño "episode".

  
  

  Historically El Niño is traced to important events such as the demise of the Moche and other pre-Columbian Peruvian cultures A recent study suggests a strong El-Niño effect between 1789 and 1793 caused poor crop yields in Europe, which in turn helped touch off the French Revolution. The extreme weather produced by El Niño in 1876–77 gave rise to the most deadly famines of the 19th century. The 1876 famine alone in northern China killed up to 13 million people.

  
  

  There is also a scientific debate on the very existence of this "new" ENSO. Studies dispute the reality of this statistical distinction or its increasing occurrence, or both. But with increasing data generated by satellite imaging, more accurate meteorological and archeological evidences.

  
  

  

  As a matter of review, the oceans of the world are interconnected. Ocean currents mix and distribute warm and cool water, in the tropical and polar regions, respectively. These currents or gyres, together with atmospheric current, moderate climate, and are important in navigation and ecology on a global scale.

  
  

  

  

  Ocean currents of the world. El Nino Phenomenon originates at the South Pacific Equatorial Current (counterclockwise) on the Southern hemisphere as shown at the left of this map. This is where the "anomaly," a deviation of the normal oscillation (El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO) which occurs as a cycle every 3 to 7 years. Note the distance of the Philippines (top right). But how are we affected by the El Nino Phenomenon?

  
  

  
  

  But first, let us visualize with the diagram (LEFT), the passing of seasons. The sun is most intense where it directly strikes the earth. Thus Summer in the northern hemisphere (left) is the hottest season and December (right) the coolest. There are two equinoxes when the rays of the sun strike the earth midway: Spring (beginning in March, top) and Autumn (beginning September, bottom). Temperate countries have pronounced seasons. The Philippines experiences only two seasons: wet (June to October/November) and dry (December to May). El Nino is most severe in the dry season which we are presently experiencing.

  
  

  

  Normal year showing balanced flow of ocean current.

  

  
  

  

  El Nino year scenario. A massive mass of water 7 degrees hotter than surface water forms a wall deflecting the cold current on both sides. This warm current moves downward along the western coast of South America, arriving by December 25, thus named El Nino.

  
  

  El Niño events occur irregularly at intervals of 2-7 years, although the average is about once every 3-4 years. They typically last 12-18 months, and are accompanied by swings in the Southern Oscillation (SO), an interannual see-saw in tropical sea level pressure between the eastern and western hemispheres

  
  

  The warm mass of water becomes so extensive it create a phenomenon of excessive rainfall and flooding in the geographic region of South America (white area). On the other side of the globe, it is warm and dry.
  
  

  

  Here is a meteorological satellite graphical presentation showing the effects of El Nino worldwide. Originally El Nino refers only to those experiencing extreme dry and hot conditions, until recently, to differentiate areas experiencing excessive rainfall and flood, the term La Nina was coined. Thus after an El Nino period, and the same area receives this time extreme wet conditions, scientists call it El Nina. Thus El Nino and La Nina may be occurring in different regions shown on the map. A place may experience alternate phenomena.

  -----------------------

  It is thought that El Niño affected the Inca Empire in modern-day Peru, who sacrificed humans in order to try and prevent the rains.

  ----------------------

  Let's not take El Nino for granted. The North Cotabato farmers' uprising was precipitated by hunger. It is ironic that farmers themselves led the uprising which resulted to two deaths, several injuries, and imprisonment of more than a hundred which included senior citizen and pregnant women.

  
  

  

  

  Flooding caused by La Nina

  
  

  The major 1982–83 El Niño led to an upsurge of interest from the scientific community. The period 1991–1995 was unusual in that El Niños have rarely occurred in such rapid succession. An especially intense El Niño event in 1998 caused an estimated 16% of the world's reef systems to die. The event temporarily warmed air temperature by 1.5 °C, compared to the usual increase of 0.25 °C associated with El Niño events. Since then, mass coral bleaching has become common worldwide, with all regions having suffered "severe bleaching". 

  
  

  2021 one of seven warmest years on record despite La Nina’s cooling effect. Experts say collation of six major datasets shows 2021 was seventh year in a row with temperatures more than 1C above pre-industrial times. ~

  --------------------------------------------------------------------------

  El Niño events of 1982-83 and 1997-98 

  were the most intense of the 20th century. 

  
  

  During the 1982-83 event, sea-surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific were 7.8-12.8° C (9-18° F) above normal. These strong temperature increases caused severe climatic changes: Australia experienced harsh drought conditions; typhoons occurred in Tahiti; and record rainfall and flooding hit central Chile. The west coast of North America was unusually stormy during the winter season, and fish catches were dramatically reduced from Chile to the U.S. state of Alaska.

  
  

  The El Niño event of 1997-98 was the first El Niño event to be scientifically monitored from beginning to end. The 1997-98 event produced drought conditions in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Peru experienced very heavy rains and severe flooding. In the United States, increased winter rainfall hit California, while the Midwest experienced record-breaking warm temperatures during a period known as “the year without a winter.”

  
  

  El Niño-related disruption of global atmospheric circulation extends beyond Pacific Rim nations. Strong El Niño events contribute to weaker monsoons in India and Southeast Asia. ENSO has even contributed to increased rainfall during the rainy season in sub-Saharan Africa.
  
  

  Diseases thrive in communities devastated by natural hazards such as flood or drought. El Niño-related flooding is associated with increases in cholera, dengue, and malaria in some parts of the world, while drought can lead to wildfires that produce respiratory problems. Excerpt from National Geographic, on Internet

  ------------------------------------------

  Part 5 -  Global Warming is accelerating!

  
  

  Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activity since the mid-20th century.

  
  

   

  Sign of the Times: Smog, acid rain and ozone depletion rolled altogether.

  Photo by AVR Fairview, QC 2010

  
  

   

  Acknowledgment: Time Magazine

  
  

  Here are scientific evidences released by the

  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  
  

  It is a fact that the Earth's climate has been changing throughout history. In the last 650,000 years there have been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat, with the abrupt end of the last ice age about 7,000 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era — and of human civilization.

  
  

  The planet's average surface temperature has risen about 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit (0.9 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, with most of the warming occurring in the past 35 years with the five warmest years on record taking place since 2010. The warmest year on record was 2016. The IPCC report continues with these alarming developments:

  
  

  The oceans are getting warmer.

  
  

  Ice sheets are shrinking, especially Greenland and Antarctic. The Arctic sea ice is declining.

  
  

  Glaciers are retreating almost everywhere around the world — including in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa (Mount Kilimanjaro),.

  
  

  The snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is melting at an earlier rate. .

  
  

  Sea level is rising. Global sea level rose about 8 inches in the last century. The rate in the last two decades, however, is nearly double that of the last century and is accelerating slightly every year.

  
  

  Extreme events such as extreme temperature, intense rainfall, and other force majeure

  The acidity of surface ocean waters has increased by about 30 percent since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution

  
  

  This global scenario calls for an urgent collective action. It is a plea addressed to governments, organizations, individuals all over the world> It is a plea beyond message of an Internationally famous broadcaster, natural historian and author, David Attenborough. To wit:

  
  

  "When we look at the rising ocean temperatures, rising carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and so on, we know that they are climbing far more steeply than can be accounted for by the natural oscillation of the weather … What people (must) do is to change their behavior and their attitudes … for our upcoming generation we have to do something, and we have to demand for government support

  
  "Right now we are facing a man-made disaster of global scale, our greatest threat in thousands of years: climate change. If we don’t take action, the collapse of our civilizations and the extinction of much of the natural world is on the horizon".

  - David Attenborough, 2018.~
  
  

  Part 6 - Take Heed of the Early Warning Signs of Nature

  
  Rain is coming, take heed!  Hovering dragonflies, aggressive biting of mosquitoes, ants on the move carrying their young and provisions. 
  

  Let's recognize Nature as our best teacher.

  
  Read Nature. You will enjoy life, live healthier and longer. You'll gain more friends and respect from people.

  
  Monsoon rains may last for 18 consecutive days, hence the term
  siyam-siyam, from which Masagana 99 rice program was coined.

  
  

  Above all, you will be at peace with yourself and with your environment.
  
  Here are some biological signs to watch. They are Nature's barometer, so to speak; Nature's clock, Nature's way of communicating with the living world.
  
  1. Mad dog – Its tail is tucked underneath; animal restless biting at anything within its reach; froth coming from its mouth; stealthily moves about without any apparent direction; dreads the presence of water (hydrophobia);   usually occurs during hot days particularly in summer. Be keen; keep distance; notify others of danger; get help.
  Dogs must be vaccinated with anti-rabies and not allowed to go in the street. (Nikko, our pet at 15 before he died of old age.)
  
  2. Drought – Occurs in summer; landscape scorched; dry river beds and ponds; brush fires occurs; lake water recedes; crack on earth, especially areas under water in monsoon; worst scenario - flowering of bamboo usually during El Nino, a phenomenon that happens every 7 to 10 years.
  Leaves oft talisay (Terminalia catappa) turn orange to red before falling to the ground, a sign that the Amihan (cold season) has arrived.  

  
  3. Earthquake – Farm animals restless; horses kick and neigh; pigs snort; fowls abandon usual roost; turkey cackle; cattle seek exit from corral; dogs howl; and the like. Wild animals abandon abode – snakes come out into the open; reptile keep out of the water; elephants defy their master’s command; birds abandon nest, other emigrate.
  
  4. Typhoon – Doldrums-like calm; uneasiness to both humans and animals as barometer reading drops which means atmospheric pressure goes down; arthritis and hypertension 
  
  symptoms are felt by sensitive persons. As typhoon approaches, sea becomes rough; sky overcast; clouds move fast to one direction; gusts of cold and warm wind, thunderstorms.
  A restless cockroach in the evening
  heralds the coming of bad weather.

  
  

  5. Influenza – Precipitated by alternate cold and hot weather, thunderstorms, abrupt change in season. Influenza season is usually at the onset of amihan as the habagat comes to an end. Practical signs: people coughing in church and other gatherings; sale of cold tablets and antibiotics is up; hospitals full. Epidemic starts in the family, neighborhood, local community; also, in schools, malls and markets, and may spread to cover a city or district or province. Modern transportation has made spread of flu easier and wider.

  
  6. Pristine Environment – Abundance of lichens on trunks and branches of trees, rocks, and soil. There are three types: crustose (crust), foliose (leaf-like) and fruticose (fruiting type). They are biological indicators of clean air. The ultimate test is the abundance of the fruticose type.
  
  7. Inclement Weather – Halo around moon; gray and red sunset; a storm may be coming depending upon the intensity of these signs.
  

  This field cricket, nature's violinist, is most
  active during warm summer night.

  
  

  8. Rain - Dragonflies hovering; aggressive biting of mosquitoes; ants move to another place carrying their young and provisions. The latter predicts heavy continuous rainfall or siyam-siyam or nep-nep. Herons on the move heralds the monsoon.

  
  9. Monsoon – Frogs croak; insects (termite, ants) swarm; lightning and thunder get frequent; first heavy rain in May vegetates the landscape, thus turning from brown to green. It comes early or late, but usually in later part of May. Global warming has brought unpredictable signs indicating that our climate is changing.
  
  10. Ripening of Fruits – Generally from green to yellow to orange (banana, orange, apple, etc. Determined by smell: guava, jackfruit, durian, melon, etc); shiny rind (caimito, siniguelas). Dull skin (chico), enlarged ridges and furrows (atis, guayabano, anonas)
  

   

  When earthworms crawl out of their holes and search for higher grounds, it is a sign that a flood is coming.
  Can you read other signs?
  1. Sweetness/sourness of fruit
  2. Maturity and succulence of vegetables (okra, cucumber)
  3. Tenderness of nut (buko, macapuno)
  4. Sweetness and maturity of fruit (watermelon)
  5. Time to harvest singkamas, onions, garlic, sugar beet
  6. Presence of jellyfish
  7. Red tide season
  8. Coming flood (earthworm abandon their burrows.)
  9. Time to harvest palay, corn, wheat.
  10. Slippery walkway (presence of algae and scum)
  11. Depth of water (by color, sound of oar, current, clarity)
  12. Cloud reading of weather.
  13. Glassy eyes (deep feelings like hatred, or “wala sa sarili”)
  14. Wrinkles at the corner of eyes (happy disposition)
  15. Furrows on forehead (problematic)
  16. Rough hand (worker, also athlete)
  17. Brilliant and attentive eyes (intelligence)
  18. Clumsiness, strumming (nervous, uncertain)
  19. Heavy feet (angry, lazy)
  20. Tight jaw (angry, restlessly active)
  
  Open Forum:
  1. How reliable is “gut feel”
  2. How about ESP?
  3. What is “aura?” How does it apply to relationships?
  4. What is Biological Clock? Name how it affects your life.
  5. Life starts at 40 – how do you interpret this?
  6. What are prophets to you? Are there people who can see the future? Do you believe

      in Nostradamus?
  7. Are dreams hidden motives, indirect messages, prophesies?
  8. How superstitious are you? Do you practice superstition?
  9. Do you think you were once living on earth in another being or living thing, in another time and place? Do you believe re-incarnation?
  10. How fatalistic are you – you are predestined even before you were born?
  
  Please share us your knowledge and experiences. Learn more from Nature - she is our best teacher. ~

                                                           ANNEX 1

Global Warming and Forest Fire

Dr Abe V Rotor

Global Warming and Forest Fire in acrylic by the author

There's irony in art: one said, it's beautiful;

     I like the bright color, said another;

It is as if it were real, a critic commented;

     but what's the message, brother?

One asked if I painted it right on-the-spot;

     a child thought it was by imagination;

a man was furious: who burned the forest? 

     blaming one and the whole nation. 

Calmly I said, it's an effect of global warming,

      and man's folly plus the phenomenon; 

 art takes the lead, breaking man's indifference,

      and guides him out of the unknown. ~ 

 ANNEX 2 - Excerpt

L.A. Death Toll Rises. 

Wildfires Could Be Costliest in U.S. History.

More than 12,000 structures had burned across the region by Sunday evening
BY LIZ MOYER AND BY JANET H. CHO | ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED ON JANUARY 13, 2025 | BARRON'S

More than 14,000 firefighters, including firefighters from Mexico, continue to battle the blazes as fierce winds threatened to pick up once again. GETTY IMAGES

Los Angeles continued to battle wildfires that have devastated communities, leading to 24 confirmed deaths in what California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Sunday could be the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history.

The death count from the fires rose to 24 from 16, officials said Sunday evening after more than 12,000 structures had burned across the region. About 150,000 residents are under evacuation orders, and about 64,000 Californians remain without power, according to PowerOutage.us. More than 14,000 firefighters, including firefighters from Mexico, continue to battle the blazes as fierce winds threatened to pick up once again.

Asked whether it will be the worst natural disaster in U.S. history, Newsom told NBC News on Sunday, “I think it will be in terms of just the costs associated with it, in terms of the scale and scope.” Newsom added that officials are using cadaver dogs to search for victims, and the death toll is likely to rise “a lot more.”

Estimates from AccuWeather put the economic cost of the fire at $135 billion to $150 billion, though that is preliminary and likely to change. Other analysts have estimated insured losses well into the billions of dollars. xxx

Moody’s Analytics said rising global temperatures have hastened climate change and increased vulnerability to wildfires in recent decades. “As drought conditions have become a new norm across the state in many parts of the West, fire season is essentially no longer a season but a year-round risk.”

After receiving historically low rainfall during what is typically a wet season, leaving 60% of the county in severe drought, extreme winds sometimes reaching hurricane speeds “fanned the flames, exacerbating burn conditions in what was already a tinderbox,” Moody’s Analytics said.