Lesson on TATAKalikasan, Ateneo de Manila University
87.9 FM Radyo Katipunan, every Thursday) 11 to 12 a.m.
Understanding El Niño Phenomenon and Global Warming
Part 1: Understanding the El Nino Phenomenon, Cause and Effect
Part 2: Global Warming is accelerating!Part 3 - Take Heed of the Early Warning Signs of Nature
Dr Abe V Rotor
The El Nino Phenomenon is quite hard to explain even in scientific circles.
El Niño-related disruption of global atmospheric circulation extends beyond Pacific Rim nations. Strong El Niño events contribute to weaker monsoons in India and Southeast Asia. ENSO has even contributed to increased rainfall during the rainy season in sub-Saharan Africa.
"Right now we are facing a man-made disaster of global scale, our greatest threat in thousands of years: climate change. If we don’t take action, the collapse of our civilizations and the extinction of much of the natural world is on the horizon".
Part 1: Understanding the El Nino Phenomenon,
Cause and Effect
El Niño and La Niña events occur every two to seven years, on average, but they don't occur on a regular schedule. Generally, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña. A new study found global weather events caused by El Niño will likely become more frequent within the next two decades regardless of any reduction in carbon emissions, which could drastically affect weather patterns around the world.
Extreme drought brings rice farming to a halt, Cabanatuan, Nueva Ecija, 2010
But first, let me clear El Nino, who to us Filipinos is most endeared in our hearts and homes, referring of course to the Child Jesus. The name was coined in Spanish when the descent of warm water along the coast of Peru and Argentina overcomes the ascending cold current causing massive rainfall and flooding. The phenomenon report coincided on Decmber 25.
A timeline of all the El Nino episodes between 1900 and 2016. It is thought that there have been at least 30 El Niño events since 1900, with the 1982-83, 1997–98 and 2014–16 events among the strongest on record. Since 2000, El Niño events have been observed in 2002–03, 2004–05, 2006–07, 2009–10 and 2015–16.
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Major ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) events were recorded in the years 1790–93, 1828, 1876–78, 1891, 1925–26, 1972–73, 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2014–16 with the episodes being among of the strongest ever. Since 2000, El Niño events have been observed in 2002–03, 2004–05, 2006–07, 2009–10, 2014–16, and 2018–19.
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Death of livestock, other animals and wildlife, engraving
El Niño events are thought to have been occurring for thousands of years.The biblical story of the 10 Plagues of Egypt is believed to be associated with El Nino, and possibly coincided with other natural disasters such as the eruption of Mt Vesuvius. The death of livestock spawned hordes of flies that caused the outbreak of boils, and triggered sudden increase in frog population. This was favored by the abatement of the Nile River's flow, which in turn caused dinoflagellates to bloom (algal bloom) with the characteristic blood-red color which we term today as Red Tide.
There is no consensus on whether climate change will have any influence on the occurrence, strength or duration of El Niño
Typically, this anomaly happens at irregular intervals of two to seven years, and lasts nine months to two years. The average period length is five years. When this warming occurs for seven to nine months, it is classified as El Niño "conditions"; when its duration is longer, it is classified as an El Niño "episode".
Historically El Niño is traced to important events such as the demise of the Moche and other pre-Columbian Peruvian cultures A recent study suggests a strong El-Niño effect between 1789 and 1793 caused poor crop yields in Europe, which in turn helped touch off the French Revolution. The extreme weather produced by El Niño in 1876–77 gave rise to the most deadly famines of the 19th century. The 1876 famine alone in northern China killed up to 13 million people.
There is also a scientific debate on the very existence of this "new" ENSO. Studies dispute the reality of this statistical distinction or its increasing occurrence, or both. But with increasing data generated by satellite imaging, more accurate meteorological and archeological evidences.
As a matter of review, the oceans of the world are interconnected. Ocean currents mix and distribute warm and cool water, in the tropical and polar regions, respectively. These currents or gyres, together with atmospheric current, moderate climate, and are important in navigation and ecology on a global scale.
Ocean currents of the world. El Nino Phenomenon originates at the South Pacific Equatorial Current (counterclockwise) on the Southern hemisphere as shown at the left of this map. This is where the "anomaly," a deviation of the normal oscillation (El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO) which occurs as a cycle every 3 to 7 years. Note the distance of the Philippines (top right). But how are we affected by the El Nino Phenomenon?
But first, let us visualize with the diagram (LEFT), the passing of seasons. The sun is most intense where it directly strikes the earth. Thus Summer in the northern hemisphere (left) is the hottest season and December (right) the coolest. There are two equinoxes when the rays of the sun strike the earth midway: Spring (beginning in March, top) and Autumn (beginning September, bottom). Temperate countries have pronounced seasons. The Philippines experiences only two seasons: wet (June to October/November) and dry (December to May). El Nino is most severe in the dry season which we are presently experiencing.
Normal year showing balanced flow of ocean current.
El Nino year scenario. A massive mass of water 7 degrees hotter than surface water forms a wall deflecting the cold current on both sides. This warm current moves downward along the western coast of South America, arriving by December 25, thus named El Nino.
El Niño events occur irregularly at intervals of 2-7 years, although the average is about once every 3-4 years. They typically last 12-18 months, and are accompanied by swings in the Southern Oscillation (SO), an interannual see-saw in tropical sea level pressure between the eastern and western hemispheres
The warm mass of water becomes so extensive it create a phenomenon of excessive rainfall and flooding in the geographic region of South America (white area). On the other side of the globe, it is warm and dry.
Here is a meteorological satellite graphical presentation showing the effects of El Nino worldwide. Originally El Nino refers only to those experiencing extreme dry and hot conditions, until recently, to differentiate areas experiencing excessive rainfall and flood, the term La Nina was coined. Thus after an El Nino period, and the same area receives this time extreme wet conditions, scientists call it El Nina. Thus El Nino and La Nina may be occurring in different regions shown on the map. A place may experience alternate phenomena.
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It is thought that El Niño affected the Inca Empire in modern-day Peru, who sacrificed humans in order to try and prevent the rains.
----------------------Let's not take El Nino for granted. The North Cotabato farmers' uprising was precipitated by hunger. It is ironic that farmers themselves led the uprising which resulted to two deaths, several injuries, and imprisonment of more than a hundred which included senior citizen and pregnant women.
Flooding caused by La Nina
The major 1982–83 El Niño led to an upsurge of interest from the scientific community. The period 1991–1995 was unusual in that El Niños have rarely occurred in such rapid succession. An especially intense El Niño event in 1998 caused an estimated 16% of the world's reef systems to die. The event temporarily warmed air temperature by 1.5 °C, compared to the usual increase of 0.25 °C associated with El Niño events. Since then, mass coral bleaching has become common worldwide, with all regions having suffered "severe bleaching".
2021 one of seven warmest years on record despite La Nina’s cooling effect. Experts say collation of six major datasets shows 2021 was seventh year in a row with temperatures more than 1C above pre-industrial times. ~
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El Niño events of 1982-83 and 1997-98
were the most intense of the 20th century.
During the 1982-83 event, sea-surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific were 7.8-12.8° C (9-18° F) above normal. These strong temperature increases caused severe climatic changes: Australia experienced harsh drought conditions; typhoons occurred in Tahiti; and record rainfall and flooding hit central Chile. The west coast of North America was unusually stormy during the winter season, and fish catches were dramatically reduced from Chile to the U.S. state of Alaska.
The El Niño event of 1997-98 was the first El Niño event to be scientifically monitored from beginning to end. The 1997-98 event produced drought conditions in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Peru experienced very heavy rains and severe flooding. In the United States, increased winter rainfall hit California, while the Midwest experienced record-breaking warm temperatures during a period known as “the year without a winter.”
Diseases thrive in communities devastated by natural hazards such as flood or drought. El Niño-related flooding is associated with increases in cholera, dengue, and malaria in some parts of the world, while drought can lead to wildfires that produce respiratory problems. Excerpt from National Geographic, on Internet
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Part 2: Global Warming is accelerating!
Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activity since the mid-20th century.
Sign of the Times: Smog, acid rain and ozone depletion rolled altogether.
Photo by AVR Fairview, QC 2010
Acknowledgment: Time Magazine
Here are scientific evidences released by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeIt is a fact that the Earth's climate has been changing throughout history. In the last 650,000 years there have been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat, with the abrupt end of the last ice age about 7,000 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era — and of human civilization.
The planet's average surface temperature has risen about 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit (0.9 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, with most of the warming occurring in the past 35 years with the five warmest years on record taking place since 2010. The warmest year on record was 2016. The IPCC report continues with these alarming developments:
The oceans are getting warmer.
Ice sheets are shrinking, especially Greenland and Antarctic. The Arctic sea ice is declining.
Glaciers are retreating almost everywhere around the world — including in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa (Mount Kilimanjaro),.
The snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is melting at an earlier rate. .
Sea level is rising. Global sea level rose about 8 inches in the last century. The rate in the last two decades, however, is nearly double that of the last century and is accelerating slightly every year.
Extreme events such as extreme temperature, intense rainfall, and other force majeure
The acidity of surface ocean waters has increased by about 30 percent since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution
This global scenario calls for an urgent collective action. It is a plea addressed to governments, organizations, individuals all over the world> It is a plea beyond message of an Internationally famous broadcaster, natural historian and author, David Attenborough. To wit:
"When we look at the rising ocean temperatures, rising carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and so on, we know that they are climbing far more steeply than can be accounted for by the natural oscillation of the weather … What people (must) do is to change their behavior and their attitudes … for our upcoming generation we have to do something, and we have to demand for government support
"Right now we are facing a man-made disaster of global scale, our greatest threat in thousands of years: climate change. If we don’t take action, the collapse of our civilizations and the extinction of much of the natural world is on the horizon".
- David Attenborough, 2018.~
Part 3 - Take Heed of the Early Warning Signs of Nature
Rain is coming, take heed! Hovering dragonflies, aggressive biting of mosquitoes, ants on the move carrying their young and provisions.
Let's recognize Nature as our best teacher.Read Nature. You will enjoy life, live healthier and longer. You'll gain more friends and respect from people.
Monsoon rains may last for 18 consecutive days, hence the term
siyam-siyam, from which Masagana 99 rice program was coined.
Here are some biological signs to watch. They are Nature's barometer, so to speak; Nature's clock, Nature's way of communicating with the living world.
1. Mad dog – Its tail is tucked underneath; animal restless biting at anything within its reach; froth coming from its mouth; stealthily moves about without any apparent direction; dreads the presence of water (hydrophobia); usually occurs during hot days particularly in summer. Be keen; keep distance; notify others of danger; get help.
Dogs must be vaccinated with anti-rabies and not allowed to go in the street. (Nikko, our pet at 15 before he died of old age.)
2. Drought – Occurs in summer; landscape scorched; dry river beds and ponds; brush fires occurs; lake water recedes; crack on earth, especially areas under water in monsoon; worst scenario - flowering of bamboo usually during El Nino, a phenomenon that happens every 7 to 10 years.Leaves oft talisay (Terminalia catappa) turn orange to red before falling to the ground, a sign that the Amihan (cold season) has arrived.
3. Earthquake – Farm animals restless; horses kick and neigh; pigs snort; fowls abandon usual roost; turkey cackle; cattle seek exit from corral; dogs howl; and the like. Wild animals abandon abode – snakes come out into the open; reptile keep out of the water; elephants defy their master’s command; birds abandon nest, other emigrate.
4. Typhoon – Doldrums-like calm; uneasiness to both humans and animals as barometer reading drops which means atmospheric pressure goes down; arthritis and hypertension
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symptoms are felt by sensitive persons. As typhoon approaches, sea becomes rough; sky overcast; clouds move fast to one direction; gusts of cold and warm wind, thunderstorms.
A restless cockroach in the evening
heralds the coming of bad weather.
5. Influenza – Precipitated by alternate cold and hot weather, thunderstorms, abrupt change in season. Influenza season is usually at the onset of amihan as the habagat comes to an end. Practical signs: people coughing in church and other gatherings; sale of cold tablets and antibiotics is up; hospitals full. Epidemic starts in the family, neighborhood, local community; also, in schools, malls and markets, and may spread to cover a city or district or province. Modern transportation has made spread of flu easier and wider.
6. Pristine Environment – Abundance of lichens on trunks and branches of trees, rocks, and soil. There are three types: crustose (crust), foliose (leaf-like) and fruticose (fruiting type). They are biological indicators of clean air. The ultimate test is the abundance of the fruticose type.
7. Inclement Weather – Halo around moon; gray and red sunset; a storm may be coming depending upon the intensity of these signs.
This field cricket, nature's violinist, is most
active during warm summer night.
active during warm summer night.
8. Rain - Dragonflies hovering; aggressive biting of mosquitoes; ants move to another place carrying their young and provisions. The latter predicts heavy continuous rainfall or siyam-siyam or nep-nep. Herons on the move heralds the monsoon.
9. Monsoon – Frogs croak; insects (termite, ants) swarm; lightning and thunder get frequent; first heavy rain in May vegetates the landscape, thus turning from brown to green. It comes early or late, but usually in later part of May. Global warming has brought unpredictable signs indicating that our climate is changing.
10. Ripening of Fruits – Generally from green to yellow to orange (banana, orange, apple, etc. Determined by smell: guava, jackfruit, durian, melon, etc); shiny rind (caimito, siniguelas). Dull skin (chico), enlarged ridges and furrows (atis, guayabano, anonas)
Can you read other signs?
1. Sweetness/sourness of fruit
2. Maturity and succulence of vegetables (okra, cucumber)
3. Tenderness of nut (buko, macapuno)
4. Sweetness and maturity of fruit (watermelon)
5. Time to harvest singkamas, onions, garlic, sugar beet
6. Presence of jellyfish
7. Red tide season
8. Coming flood (earthworm abandon their burrows.)
9. Time to harvest palay, corn, wheat.
10. Slippery walkway (presence of algae and scum)
11. Depth of water (by color, sound of oar, current, clarity)
12. Cloud reading of weather.
13. Glassy eyes (deep feelings like hatred, or “wala sa sarili”)
14. Wrinkles at the corner of eyes (happy disposition)
15. Furrows on forehead (problematic)
16. Rough hand (worker, also athlete)
17. Brilliant and attentive eyes (intelligence)
18. Clumsiness, strumming (nervous, uncertain)
19. Heavy feet (angry, lazy)
20. Tight jaw (angry, restlessly active)
Open Forum:
1. How reliable is “gut feel”
2. How about ESP?
3. What is “aura?” How does it apply to relationships?
4. What is Biological Clock? Name how it affects your life.
5. Life starts at 40 – how do you interpret this?
6. What are prophets to you? Are there people who can see the future? Do you believe
in Nostradamus?
7. Are dreams hidden motives, indirect messages, prophesies?
8. How superstitious are you? Do you practice superstition?
9. Do you think you were once living on earth in another being or living thing, in another time and place? Do you believe re-incarnation?
10. How fatalistic are you – you are predestined even before you were born?
Please share us your knowledge and experiences. Learn more from Nature - she is our best teacher. ~
7. Are dreams hidden motives, indirect messages, prophesies?
8. How superstitious are you? Do you practice superstition?
9. Do you think you were once living on earth in another being or living thing, in another time and place? Do you believe re-incarnation?
10. How fatalistic are you – you are predestined even before you were born?
Please share us your knowledge and experiences. Learn more from Nature - she is our best teacher. ~
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