Part 1 -Global Warming is accelerating!
Part 2 - Environmental degradation is the most serious global abuse
Part 3 - Industrialization is Driving Our Climate Wild
Part 4 - Understanding the El Nino Phenomenon, Cause and Effect
Part 5 - Kiribati: Vanishing Paradise
Part 6 - Some Detrimental Effects of El Niño Drought
Part 1 -Global Warming is accelerating!
Sign of the Times: Smog, acid rain and ozone depletion rolled altogether.
Photo by AVR Fairview, QC 2010
Extreme heat is a growing threat due to climate change, and the Philippines has experienced extreme heat in recent years. In April 2024
the Philippines experienced extreme heat, with the heat index reaching 45°C in Manila and 47°C in Dagupan city. The Department of Health (DOH) classified temperatures of 33–41°C as "extreme caution" and 42–51°C as "danger".
Dr Abe V Rotor
Former Professor, UST, DLSU-D Lesson in Advanced Ecology UST and DLSU(D) Graduate Schools. How can an ordinary citizen help in cushioning global warming?
Acknowledgment: Time Magazine
Here are scientific evidences released by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activity since the mid-20th century.
It is a fact that the Earth's climate has been changing throughout history. In the last 650,000 years there have been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat, with the abrupt end of the last ice age about 7,000 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era — and of human civilization.
The planet's average surface temperature has risen about 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit (0.9 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, with most of the warming occurring in the past 35 years with the five warmest years on record taking place since 2010. The warmest year on record was 2016. The IPCC report continues with these alarming developments:
1. The oceans are getting warmer.
2. Ice sheets are shrinking, especially Greenland and Antarctic. The Arctic sea ice is declining.
3. Glaciers are retreating almost everywhere around the world — including in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa (Mount Kilimanjaro),.
4.The snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is melting at an earlier rate. .
5. Sea level is rising. Global sea level rose about 8 inches in the last century. The rate in the last two decades, however, is nearly double that of the last century and is accelerating slightly every year.
6. Extreme events such as extreme temperature, intense rainfall, and other force majeure
7. The acidity of surface ocean waters has increased by about 30 percent since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution
This global scenario calls for an urgent collective action. It is a plea addressed to governments, organizations, individuals all over the world> It is a plea beyond message of an Internationally famous broadcaster, natural historian and author, David Attenborough. To wit:
"When we look at the rising ocean temperatures, rising carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and so on, we know that they are climbing far more steeply than can be accounted for by the natural oscillation of the weather … What people (must) do is to change their behavior and their attitudes … for our upcoming generation we have to do something, and we have to demand for government support
"Right now we are facing a man-made disaster of global scale, our greatest threat in thousands of years: climate change. If we don’t take action, the collapse of our civilizations and the extinction of much of the natural world is on the horizon".
- David Attenborough, 2018.~
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Things we, citizens, can do to combat climate change
The single-most important thing that we can do to combat climate change is to drastically reduce our consumption of fossil fuels.
1) Don't waste food
2) Eat less processed food
3) Compost farm and kitchen waste into fertilizer
4) Reduce use of commercial fertilizers and farm chemicals
4) Walk, bike or take public transport
5) Consume less water
6) Use LED lighting, smart thermostats, and high-efficiency appliances
7) Save energy at home, specially electricity
8) Change your home's source of energy (Ex, solar)
9) Switch to an electric vehicle
10) Consider your travel - ONLY if important
11) Reduce, reuse, repair and recycle
12) Eat more vegetables
13) Plant trees, take care of trees
14) Plant native species of plants, raise native animals and fowls
15) Cleanliness and sanitation of home and surroundings always
16) Make your money count (save, save, save)
17) Speak up, join campaign to help save our planet
18) Invest in environmental health care
19) Build natural resistance and immunity, personally and family
20) Keep environmental care standard high
21) Regenerate spent farms, ponds, woodlands, pasture
22) Green your home, neighborhood, community
23) No bare soil, deprave pavement with grass or garden
24) Revive dead and dying lawn, neglected and abandoned lots, fishponds
25) Revive dead and dying waterways, shorelines, riverbanks, streams
26) Support soil health (erosion and siltation control) restore fertility
27) Support organic and natural farming
28) Rainwater harvesting and impounding
29) Restore water cycle garden pond, palay-isdaan in rice fields
30) Grassland and pasture management the way Nature does it
31) Bring back biodiversity, like in pocket parks, garden, arboretum
32)Tri-commodity farming - plants-animals-fish integration
33) Restore wetland, preserve miniclimate, biodiversity
34) Reforest mangrove, coral reefs, estuaries
35) Participate and support community projects (green initiative)
36) Maintain integrity of food chain, food web, food pyramid
37) Help nature maintain soil fertility, pH, structure, tilth
39) Help preserve indicators of good environment like fireflies, lichens
40) Spread the Word to children, neighbors, friends, organizations
Part 2 - Environmental degradation
is the most serious global abuse
Environmental degradation is the most serious global abuse, not only in pursuit of actual human need, but his unending want of affluence apparently of no end. The earth is slowly choking with deadly gases, its surface defaced and stripped of natural cover, man-made materials dumped on land and water, in fact its geography has changed and continues to be modified directly and indirectly by man.
Dr Abe V Rotor
1. What withheld the world to shift to alternative energy was the cheap fossil fuel, virtually oozing from the ground and flowing through pipelines around the globe to feed the
Bad air over New Delhi, typical in other big cities like Beijing, New York and Metro Manila
industrial boom and millions of cars as affluence rose to the point of ostentatious and frivolous living. But each car’s exhaust is a miniature volcano, erupting daily, worse than a Mt Pinatubo (Philippines) and Mount St Helens (US) combined.
2. The air accumulates gaseous materials and particulates, building acid rain that turns soil acidic and unproductive, defacing valuable works of art (historical relics and artefacts), causing illnesses heretofore unrecorded in medical books, and triggering other diseases as well, including the resurgence of ancient diseases like tuberculosis.
Thinning of the ozone layer over Antarctica. Ozone hole has been detected over the Arctic.
3. The ozone layer, a protective blanket against radiation from space is being thinned by CFC and other gases. A hole at the southern hemisphere as big as continental USA, exposes millions, particularly children, in Australia and New Zealand to ultraviolet rays, a major cause of skin cancer. A smaller ozone hole is building up over the Arctic region.
4. Gases in the atmosphere trap heat from escaping, thus solar heat together with heat generated by the earth and man’s activities collectively contribute to global warming at an alarming rate. Climate change has been the cause of climatic adversities (typhoons, tornadoes, drought, blizzards), erratic weather, and other unexplained atmospheric phenomena.
5. In Al Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth” the world is getting warmer and warmer at a geometric rate, far exceeding any period of the history of the earth except in its early formation. Warming is traced to increasing amount of CO2 in the air, the principal gas of combustion mainly of fossil fuel that runs agriculture, industry, transportation, and illuminate whole cities around the world.
6, The failure of timely shift to alternative fuel even as fossil fuel sources are dwindling, even as alternative energy is available, even as population demand tremendously increased in the past one hundred years, has grave consequences which we are feeling today, and this is just the beginning - fuel shortage, high cost of living, increasing inequity leading to mass poverty.
7. Environmental degradation is the most serious effect, not only in meeting actual need, but unending want of affluence apparently of no end. The earth is slowly choking with deadly gases, its surface defaced and stripped of natural cover, man-made materials dumped on land and water, in fact its geography has changed and continues to be modified directly and indirectly by man.
8. Reminiscent of the Dust Bowl of the Dakotas in the US in the early 20th century are similar desertification cases, farmlands becoming wastelands due to excessive farming and poor management, such cases include the Sahel region (Africa) struck in the 60s by extreme drought, farmlands around the shrinking Aral Sea (Russia), the source of irrigation now only a measly fraction of its original size.
A comparison of Aral Sea in 1989 (left) and 2014 (right)
9. We don’t have to go far. Our own Laguna Bay, bigger than the Sea of Galilee, is dying, its once pristine blue water as I saw it in the sixties as a UPLB trainee in a lakeshore barangay, Gatid, Sta Cruz, is now shallow and muddy as siltation and pollution from homes, farms and industries from four surrounding provinces worsen by encroaching settlements and fishpens clogging the lake – indeed a desecration of the lake’s beauty as described in Rizal’s celebrated novel, Noli Me Tangere.
10. All over the world lakes and rivers are dying: Lake Chad of Africa, Aral Sea of Russia, tributaries of Mississippi in the US, Nile in Egypt, Yangtze in China, Mekong in Vietnam. Who would believe that odor of methane and hydrogen sulphide from the polluted harbour of Hongkong is the first to greet passengers even before landing on the sprawling modern airport? So with tourists on reaching the deck of the 100-storey Sears Tower on Lake Michigan in the US.
Part 3 - Industrialization is Driving Our Climate Wild
“Except for nuclear war or collision with an asteroid, no force has more potential to damage our planet’s web of life than global warming.” Time, Feeling the Heat
Dr Abe V Rotor
There is a ballad sang by Pat Boone, the theme aptly goes like this. “Sometimes, an April day will suddenly bring shower… rain to grow the flowers.”
"Greenhouse gases" mainly Carbon and Sulfur form a gaseous soup in the atmosphere
April in the Northern Luzon is normally the driest of all months. Pag-asa’s record for rain is nil. But a tropical depression may bring along rain that wakes up dormant seeds and make the fields green. But it also douses the fire of the flowers of the fire tree (Regia) and Dapdap (Erythrina)
Our climate is changing for the worse. April may still be the warmest month of the year but, at the same time, we are getting frequent thunderstorms that cause flashfloods and instant traffic jams. Early rains cause grasshoppers to prematurely change colors - brown to green too soon, while proceeding to turn beaches into jellyfish haven.
A Different Kind of Summer
Summer may need a new definition when cicadas fill the eerie summer air, while termites and winged ants swarm before June. The June beetle appears as early as in April. So much summer squash lay in waste in the fields, unharvested because of just one untimely rain. This phenomenon also wakes up the weeds, only to dry up in their juvenile stage. Such false signals of early rain could mean losses of early crops which farmers often plant at the start of the monsoon.
Rainfall is as erratic towards the end of the year as at the beginning. For example, the price of vegetables soared in 2002 when the tail of the monsoon season stayed too long. Onions, garlic, most leafy vegetables, like cabbage and cauliflower, and practically all cucurbits (from ampalaya to cucumber), were adversely affected by unexpected summer rains.
Buildup of Pests and Diseases
Creating a big problem for farmers is the buildup of fungal and bacterial diseases, along with the redoubling of pests. Many organisms, which include insects, nematodes, fungi and bacteria, aestivate during the dry season. Imagine these organisms rising from their dormancy like a sleeping genie, proceeding to attack the nearby plants.
As a farmhand, one notes that when the day is hot and along comes a sudden rainfall, old folks would turn their heads around and, imitating the sound of the house lizard, sigh, “Agparuar manen iti igges.” (This untimely rain is going to breed pests.)
There is something biblical in their prediction, but the scientific basis is that the rain softens the shell of aestivating insects, opens the spores of fungi and bacteria, converting the surrounding environment into one favorable for their growth and development. A sudden rain wakes up a colony of mites ensconced in a curled leaf, incubates a batch of locust eggs buried in the ground, activates resting spores of Pythium (a rot-causing fungus), and softens nematodes tough skin. Considering the short life cycle of these organisms, their mode of infestation coincides with the life cycle of their main and alternate host plants. Whole fields can be destroyed instantaneously.
But plant damage due to physical stress is also just as devastating. Imagine watering your garden on a very hot time of the day. Plant cells are directly damaged by sudden changes in temperature. It also affects the efficiency of osmosis (the intercellular movement of water and dissolved substances from one cell to another), which is vital to the plant’s physiology.
Man-Induced Atmospheric Disturbances
While too much rain falls unexpectedly in one area, there is equally the chance that other areas are not getting enough of it. This is one characteristic of the current global warming, despite of the increase in air moisture in the air by 10 percent in the last two decades. Uneven distribution of rainfall is exacerbated by factors that are mainly man-induced.
Swarm of jellyfish spurred by global warming.
Carbon Dioxide from automobiles and industries is not only increasing the “greenhouse effect”, but is also creating uneven distribution of clouds. As a result we have unpredictable rainfall distribution. When this coincides with El Nino which is a cyclical phenomenon of unusual drought and flooding occurring in opposite places, a severe climatic condition, such as those that occurred in 1972, 1986 and 1995, occur. Crop losses alone over the world ran into billions of dollars.
Industrialization and agriculture have become on the long run strange bedfellows, so to speak. And the irony is that, while agriculture spurred the growth and development of industrialization, it the latter’s by-product – pollution - that is destroying the relationship once conceived to be compatible, thus threatening the lives of millions of farmers all over the world.
Erratic Weather and Pest Buildup
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Perhaps not many people know that infestation by migratory pests is enhanced by climatic adversities. But there is a correlation between weather and pest buildup. Migratory locust-(Locusta migratoria manilensis - (Photo) assemble into the migratory phase or what is called swarming, after small groups (congregans) coalesce repeatedly, snowballing into larger and larger populations. This is happening in drought stricken areas where there are patches of green, such as irrigated farmlands and small valleys. As food is consumed quickly with the drought worsening, the insects, in thousands or millions, migrate riding on air currents. Guided by instinct to places where they can find food and a mate, they thus sow famine and human desolation everywhere they visit. Devastations in China, India, Southern United States and Mindanao are not distant memories.
As a witness to the locust control program in Lubao, Pampanga, one notices the lahar-affected areas starting to dry up as solitary locusts pack up into groups and begin attacking sugarcane, the only standing crop soon after harvesting rice and corn. That was 1995, an El Nino year.
Leafhoppers likewise ride on wind currents and could cross the sea that far in spite of their minuscule size. Leafhoppers are carriers of serious diseases of plants such as the dreaded tungro disease of rice that can wipe out a potential bumper crop. Spores of pathogens may also be transmitted this way, not to mention the foot-and-mouth pathogen that affects hoofed animals, blight and rust fungi of crops – and the dreaded influenza virus that affect man.
New Concept of Force Majeure
Even as we bring back to the drawing board technologies from both old and new agricultural schools of thought, we may not be ready for solutions when it comes to an erratic climatic condition. Sometimes we are tempted to redefine force majeure to include vagaries of the climate that nonetheless result into crop failures as destructive as those caused by floods or typhoons. Traditional agriculture is often blamed as the first and easy culprit. In the open Philippine fields, our crops thrive on the mercy of the elements. Advanced countries on the other hand, have improved better facilities (such as drip irrigation and greenhouses) to minimize the effects of potentially unruly weather and changing climate. Even so, the cost of production is increased whenever such measures are used, imputing on the price of the commodity.
Saltwater intrusion into farmlands and rivers, as a result of rising levels of our seas, is not clearly defined under the terms of crop insurance such as those of the Philippine Crop Insurance Corporation (PCIC). The same is true in the case of acid rain, which can wipe out an entire crop, or cause starvation of livestock. But with climatic conditions predisposing animals to foot-and-mouth diseases, as well as crop destruction through climate-induced pest buildup, insurance companies still have to rewrite their contract to have these claims covered.
Acid Rain
It is not only on the pattern and volume of rainfall distribution that bother us. On a number of occasions, this writer has seen field crops, lawns and gardens scorched by acid rain. Acidic reaction is manifested primarily by lesions of leaves with the leaf buds first affected, followed by gradual drying up around these spots under the heat of the sun. Either leaves dry up, or the whole plant defoliates, but in extreme cases trees suffer of dieback, which is the drying of growing tips of branches. Many plants do not recover from this stage, especially during summer, thereby providing the fuel for spontaneous forest fire.
As we continue to spew noxious gases (such as sulfur and carbon dioxide) into the air, water molecules bind with the sulfur or carbon radicals, to form acid rain. The spiked water molecules condense into rain, reaching up to acidity levels of 4 pH. Most plants thrive best within neutral 7 pH. In acidic soils, plant nutrients become locked up, so that even soils that are fertile do not produce a good harvest as expected unless their pH is adjusted to normal range. This requires a tedious and expensive rehabilitation effort.
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The increasing cases of climatic adversities endorse a re-definition of force majeure which shall serve as guide to banks and insurance companies. Meanwhile, planners are urged to go back to the drawing board to review current agricultural technologies, and land use policies. At the same time, more and more farmers are cultivating crops under greenhouses and other controlled conditions such as drip irrigation, zero tillage and natural farming to get rid of chemicals deleterious to human health. As this is done, 86 countries, signatories to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol (except the US), are working to effectively curve the deteriorating conditions of the earth’s atmosphere.
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Plants have different water, CO2 and temperature regimes
What are the effects of changing climate on plants? First, it is important to classify plants according to their water requirement. There are those that thrive best under dry condition, the xerophytes, such as those living in the desert, while others are water loving such as rice. Even our common crops are classified according to various levels of water regime, so that any significant change in their water supply greatly affects them.
Imagine that as the sea level rises, more and more areas become flooded. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC), much of the shorelines we know today will vanish if sea levels rise as predicted by computerized models. There will be changes in natural vegetation and it will be necessary to plan out cropping systems to fit into the changed landscape. The job would be as crucial as adjusting cropping systems with increasing temperature and Carbon Dioxide concentration.
In a research conducted at the UST Graduate School, with Dr. Reynaldo Tabbada as adviser, any increase in CO2 concentrations from present levels estimated at 350 ppm, may be favorable to the early post-germination development of mungbean, a typical representative of legumes. Cereals also respond favorably to raised CO2, but it is the expected doubling of CO2 levels within the next 70 to 80 years that causes us some apprehension.
Flooding also contributes to the increase in methane gas production as a result of expanding swamplands. Wider areas are likely to be planted to rice as the rate of precipitation increases. Rice culture is known to contribute significant amounts of methane gas into the atmosphere.
The levels of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane gas have jumped 30 percent, 15 percent and 100 percent, respectively, from pre-industrial levels. All these indicate that our atmospheric blanket is getting thicker and heavier, and that more heat is being trapped. Even with holes in the ozone layer atop the Antarctic region, and lately on the Arctic, the earth cannot sufficiently dissipate the heat to a state of balance.
A average increase of a mere half degree Celsius in global temperature noticed during the last century may be dismissed as “slight” were it not for the consequences felt in alarming proportions, such as the heat waves. Even with the use of models, the global temperature will continue to rise from a low estimate of 1.4 degrees Celsius to as high as 5.8 degrees Celsius by year 2100. This is 50 percent higher than predicted only a few years ago.
Except in acclimatization studies, heat tolerance is something we have not given much attention to in our current crop researches. What we usually do is to assign plants to different temperature regimes, with broad classifications, such as tropical, temperate, or semi-tropical and semi-temperate. As global temperature builds up, the frontiers of agriculture will move northward to occupy areas normally too cool for certain crops to grow. Tropical crops on the other hand will follow suit, in effect replacing temperate crops.
Primer on Greenhouse Effect
Many of us must have heard the term “Greenhouse Effect” many times to a point that it has become part of the dictionary. Greenhouse effect is an analogy. And there is no simpler way to illustrate the “trapping” of heat inside a closed chamber such as a glass house where plants are raised even if the weather outside is unfavorable for plant growth and development. Greenhouses are not as popular in the tropics as they are in temperate countries. In these places, winter is severe. Sometimes it comes early as in a frost and the plants perish before they are harvested.
Here is the mechanism of the greenhouse effect. Let us say that for every ten rays (heat value) of the sun that enter the glass roof, nine are reflected back to the atmosphere, and one is retained in the process. If this is repeated many times over, the inside of the greenhouse becomes hotter than outside. If out of ten ray units, seven are reflected back thereby causing three to stay, the heat buildup is proportionally more rapid and intense.
Our atmosphere is like a greenhouse, its roof is the atmosphere. When the sun strikes the earth, the atmosphere retains the heat for sometime, otherwise our planet will be cooler than it is now. It is this heat level that maintains a climate favorable to life as we know it. When it is cold we need a blanket to keep us warm. Similarly the atmosphere serves as a blanket for our planet.
This blanket is not at all fixed and stable; it had undergone changes in the past. The last Ice Age was preceded by a decrease of our atmospheric temperature, a phenomenon that had recurred cyclically during the succeeding millions of years. It is only at this time, at the advent of industrialization that man’s activities have definitely influenced the structure and behavior of our atmosphere.
In his masteral thesis, “Global Warming: Its Ethico-Theological Implications,” presented to the UST Graduate School, Fr. Allan M. Otodoy, concluded that the expansion of the greenhouse effect is a clear sign that modern civilization is on a destructive path. It raises ethical questions of environmental issues that all of us need to know and ponder upon.
We have tinkered, and continue to tinker, with our natural environment such as in the way we use energy, principally fossil fuel. By so doing, we alter, if not destroy, the ecosystem. We as a species always aimed at satisfying our needs and wants, while elevating our standards of living without regard for the finite resources of the earth.
Additionally, we have been indifferent to confront the problems of inequality in the distribution of these resources – agricultural and industrial, and well, natural resources – those we often consider as free. Poverty contributes as much to the degradation of out environment as the creation and use of goods and services that only the affluent can afford.
Industrialization has erased much of our gains in agriculture, and has negated our efforts to preserve the environment. We cannot have the best of two worlds, but we can come up with a formula of development that best serve mankind. x x x
Part 4 - Understanding the El Nino Phenomenon, Cause and Effect
El Niño and La Niña events occur every two to seven years, on average, but they don't occur on a regular schedule. Generally, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña. A new study found global weather events caused by El Niño will likely become more frequent within the next two decades regardless of any reduction in carbon emissions, which could drastically affect weather patterns around the world.
Extreme drought brings rice farming to a halt, Cabanatuan, Nueva Ecija, 2010
The El Nino Phenomenon is quite hard to explain even in scientific circles.
But first, let me clear El Nino, who to us Filipinos is most endeared in our hearts and homes, referring of course to the Child Jesus. The name was coined in Spanish when the descent of warm water along the coast of Peru and Argentina overcomes the ascending cold current causing massive rainfall and flooding. The phenomenon report coincided on Decmber 25.
A timeline of all the El Nino episodes between 1900 and 2016. It is thought that there have been at least 30 El Niño events since 1900, with the 1982-83, 1997–98 and 2014–16 events among the strongest on record. Since 2000, El Niño events have been observed in 2002–03, 2004–05, 2006–07, 2009–10 and 2015–16.
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Major ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) events were recorded in the years 1790–93, 1828, 1876–78, 1891, 1925–26, 1972–73, 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2014–16 with the episodes being among of the strongest ever. Since 2000, El Niño events have been observed in 2002–03, 2004–05, 2006–07, 2009–10, 2014–16, and 2018–19.
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Death of livestock, other animals and wildlife, engraving
El Niño events are thought to have been occurring for thousands of years.The biblical story of the 10 Plagues of Egypt is believed to be associated with El Nino, and possibly coincided with other natural disasters such as the eruption of Mt Vesuvius. The death of livestock spawned hordes of flies that caused the outbreak of boils, and triggered sudden increase in frog population. This was favored by the abatement of the Nile River's flow, which in turn caused dinoflagellates to bloom (algal bloom) with the characteristic blood-red color which we term today as Red Tide.
There is no consensus on whether climate change will have any influence on the occurrence, strength or duration of El Niño
Typically, this anomaly happens at irregular intervals of two to seven years, and lasts nine months to two years. The average period length is five years. When this warming occurs for seven to nine months, it is classified as El Niño "conditions"; when its duration is longer, it is classified as an El Niño "episode".
Historically El Niño is traced to important events such as the demise of the Moche and other pre-Columbian Peruvian cultures A recent study suggests a strong El-Niño effect between 1789 and 1793 caused poor crop yields in Europe, which in turn helped touch off the French Revolution. The extreme weather produced by El Niño in 1876–77 gave rise to the most deadly famines of the 19th century. The 1876 famine alone in northern China killed up to 13 million people.
There is also a scientific debate on the very existence of this "new" ENSO. Studies dispute the reality of this statistical distinction or its increasing occurrence, or both. But with increasing data generated by satellite imaging, more accurate meteorological and archeological evidences.
As a matter of review, the oceans of the world are interconnected. Ocean currents mix and distribute warm and cool water, in the tropical and polar regions, respectively. These currents or gyres, together with atmospheric current, moderate climate, and are important in navigation and ecology on a global scale.
Ocean currents of the world. El Nino Phenomenon originates at the South Pacific Equatorial Current (counterclockwise) on the Southern hemisphere as shown at the left of this map. This is where the "anomaly," a deviation of the normal oscillation (El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO) which occurs as a cycle every 3 to 7 years. Note the distance of the Philippines (top right). But how are we affected by the El Nino Phenomenon?
But first, let us visualize with the diagram (LEFT), the passing of seasons. The sun is most intense where it directly strikes the earth. Thus Summer in the northern hemisphere (left) is the hottest season and December (right) the coolest. There are two equinoxes when the rays of the sun strike the earth midway: Spring (beginning in March, top) and Autumn (beginning September, bottom). Temperate countries have pronounced seasons. The Philippines experiences only two seasons: wet (June to October/November) and dry (December to May). El Nino is most severe in the dry season which we are presently experiencing.
Normal year showing balanced flow of ocean current.
El Nino year scenario. A massive mass of water 7 degrees hotter than surface water forms a wall deflecting the cold current on both sides. This warm current moves downward along the western coast of South America, arriving by December 25, thus named El Nino.
El Niño events occur irregularly at intervals of 2-7 years, although the average is about once every 3-4 years. They typically last 12-18 months, and are accompanied by swings in the Southern Oscillation (SO), an interannual see-saw in tropical sea level pressure between the eastern and western hemispheres
The warm mass of water becomes so extensive it create a phenomenon of excessive rainfall and flooding in the geographic region of South America (white area). On the other side of the globe, it is warm and dry.
Here is a meteorological satellite graphical presentation showing the effects of El Nino worldwide. Originally El Nino refers only to those experiencing extreme dry and hot conditions, until recently, to differentiate areas experiencing excessive rainfall and flood, the term La Nina was coined. Thus after an El Nino period, and the same area receives this time extreme wet conditions, scientists call it El Nina. Thus El Nino and La Nina may be occurring in different regions shown on the map. A place may experience alternate phenomena.
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It is thought that El Niño affected the Inca Empire in modern-day Peru, who sacrificed humans in order to try and prevent the rains.
----------------------Let's not take El Nino for granted. The North Cotabato farmers' uprising was precipitated by hunger. It is ironic that farmers themselves led the uprising which resulted to two deaths, several injuries, and imprisonment of more than a hundred which included senior citizen and pregnant women.
Flooding caused by La Nina
The major 1982–83 El Niño led to an upsurge of interest from the scientific community. The period 1991–1995 was unusual in that El Niños have rarely occurred in such rapid succession. An especially intense El Niño event in 1998 caused an estimated 16% of the world's reef systems to die. The event temporarily warmed air temperature by 1.5 °C, compared to the usual increase of 0.25 °C associated with El Niño events. Since then, mass coral bleaching has become common worldwide, with all regions having suffered "severe bleaching".
2021 one of seven warmest years on record despite La Nina’s cooling effect. Experts say collation of six major datasets shows 2021 was seventh year in a row with temperatures more than 1C above pre-industrial times. ~
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El Niño events of 1982-83 and 1997-98
were the most intense of the 20th century.
During the 1982-83 event, sea-surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific were 7.8-12.8° C (9-18° F) above normal. These strong temperature increases caused severe climatic changes: Australia experienced harsh drought conditions; typhoons occurred in Tahiti; and record rainfall and flooding hit central Chile. The west coast of North America was unusually stormy during the winter season, and fish catches were dramatically reduced from Chile to the U.S. state of Alaska.
The El Niño event of 1997-98 was the first El Niño event to be scientifically monitored from beginning to end. The 1997-98 event produced drought conditions in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Peru experienced very heavy rains and severe flooding. In the United States, increased winter rainfall hit California, while the Midwest experienced record-breaking warm temperatures during a period known as “the year without a winter.”
El Niño-related disruption of global atmospheric circulation extends beyond Pacific Rim nations. Strong El Niño events contribute to weaker monsoons in India and Southeast Asia. ENSO has even contributed to increased rainfall during the rainy season in sub-Saharan Africa.
Diseases thrive in communities devastated by natural hazards such as flood or drought. El Niño-related flooding is associated with increases in cholera, dengue, and malaria in some parts of the world, while drought can lead to wildfires that produce respiratory problems. Excerpt from National Geographic, on Internet
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Part 5 - Kiribati: Vanishing Paradise
Rising sea level is forcing inhabitants to leave permanently their home islands, a classical example of modern day exodus - ecomigration.
Kiribati main island is formerly Atoll Christmas, named by Captain Cook when he arrived on Christmas Eve in 1777. The island, like most islands in the region, faces irreversible submergence and sea water intrusion as a result of rising sea level brought about by global warming. The island was used as nuclear testing ground by the United States in the fifties and sixties.
Aerial view of the Kiribati group of islands. Rising sea level is forcing inhabitants to leave permanently their home islands, a classical example of modern day exodus - ecomigration. Displaced inhabitants are being settled mainly in Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea.
The sea has practically swallowed up a whole atoll*, with narrow
fringes the only remaining habitable portion, at least up to now.
*An atoll is a ring-shaped coral reef, island, or series of islets. An atoll surrounds a body of water called a lagoon. Sometimes, atolls and lagoons protect a central island. Channels between islets connect a lagoon to the open ocean or sea. Atolls develop with underwater volcanoes, called seamounts.Kiribati Parliament House is threatened by receding shoreline
(background) and rising lagoon (foreground).
Kiribati (pronounced /ˈkɪrɨbæs or KIRR-i-bas; Gilbertese: [ˈkiɾibas]), is composed of 32 atolls and one raised coral island, dispersed over 3.5 million square kilometres, (1,351,000 square miles) straddling the equator, and bordering the International Date Line at its easternmost point. Kiribati is the only country in the world located on both hemispheres and lying on both sides of the 180th meridian.
The groups of islands are:
* Banaba: an isolated island between Nauru and the Gilbert Islands
* Gilbert Islands: 16 atolls located some 930 miles (1,500 km) north of Fiji
* Phoenix Islands: 8 atolls and coral islands located some 1,100 miles (1,800 km) southeast of the Gilberts
* Line Islands: 8 atolls and one reef, located about 2,050 miles (3,300 km) east of the Gilberts.
Caroline Atoll channel between west side of Long Island and Nake Island.
Used for nuclear testing in the 1950s and 1960s, the island is now valued for its marine and wildlife resources. It is particularly important as a seabird nesting site—with an estimated 6 million birds using or breeding on the island, including several million Sooty Terns.
According to the South Pacific Regional Environment Program, two small uninhabited Kiribati islets, Tebua Tarawa and Abanuea, disappeared underwater in 1999. The islet of Tepuka Savilivili no longer has any coconut trees due to salination. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that sea levels will rise by about half a metre (20 in) by 2100 due to global warming and a further rise would be inevitable. It is thus likely that within a century the nation's arable land will become subject to increased soil salination and will be largely submerged.
Rising level level is also being felt in many countries, particularly island-countries like the Philippines. ~
Images of Kiribati from the Internet
Kiribati, officially the Republic of Kiribati, is an island country in the Micronesia subregion of Oceania in the central Pacific Ocean. Its permanent population is over 119,000 as of the 2020 census, with more than half living on Tarawa atoll. The state comprises 32 atolls and one remote raised coral island, Banaba. WikipediaOfficial name: Republic of Kiribati.
Capital city: Tarawa.
Population: 135,389.
Area: 811 sq km.
Major languages: I-Kiribati, English.
Time zone: UTC+12/+13/+14 (Gilbert Island Time/Phoenix Island
Time/Line Islands Time)
- Economy- Until 1979, when Banaba’s deposit of phosphate rock was exhausted, Kiribati’s economy depended heavily on the export of phosphate mineral. Before the cessation of mining, a large reserve fund was accumulated; the interest now contributes to government revenue. Other revenue earners are copra, mostly produced in the village economy, and license fees from foreign fishing fleets, including a special tuna-fishing agreement with the European Union. Commercial seaweed farming has become an important economic activity. Internet
Part 6 - Some Detrimental Effects of El Niño Drought
Seedlings of Ilang-ilang (Cananga odorata) and Sweet Tamarind (Tamarindus indica) wilt under the punishing sun, exacerbated by the heat evolved by the concrete pavement. Daily watering is needed in the morning and afternoon.
Malunggay trees (Moringa oleifera) appear to withstand the current drought and excessive picking of their leaves by passersby. Their trunks have been cut into stumps to give way to street lighting and cable installation.
Kamote (Ipomea batatas) is predisposed to Sweet Potato weevil (Cylas formicarius)
under extreme heat. The pest renders the tubers totally unfit to human and animal consumption.
Anahaw (Livistona rotundifolia) becomes an alternate host of Rhinocerus Beetle (Oryctes rhinocerus) in the absence of its regular host - coconut. The pest has been emboldened by continuous and heavy spraying of vegetables and other crops in the area.
Used plastic sacks left in the farm to "decay" under direct sunlight and continuous irrigation disintegrate into microplastic which is deleterious to health and the environment.
Brooding hen finds refuge to hatch her eggs inside a broken jar (burnay Ilk) while outside temperature is unbearable.
Talisay (Terminalia catappa) barely retains its leaves, while a Camachile tree (Pitecolobium dulce) succumbs to the El Niño phenomenon, the worst in many years this current year 2024.
Acacia trees (Samanea saman} now skeletons in the sky, and a new beginning and resolve with the young generation led by co-ed Angie Tobias. ~
Lesson in 6 parts on TATAKalikasan, Ateneo de Manila University
87.9 FM Radyo Katipunan, every Thursday) 11 to 12 a.m., Nov 21, 2024
Human activities trigger
current Climate Change
40 Ways we, citizens, can do to combat climate change
Dr Abe V Rotor
Co-Host with Fr JM Manzano SJ,
and Prof Emoy Rodolfo, AdMU
Guest: Joseph Quilang Basconcillo, PhD
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and
Astronomical Services Administration
Part 1 -Global Warming is accelerating!
Part 2 - Environmental degradation is the most serious global abuse
Part 3 - Industrialization is Driving Our Climate Wild
Part 4 - Understanding the El Nino Phenomenon, Cause and Effect
Part 5 - Kiribati: Vanishing Paradise
Part 6 - Some Detrimental Effects of El Niño Drought
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